Matteo Renzi campaigning for constitutional reform NurPhoto/Getty Images

Die Flucht aus Italien

CAMBRIDGE – Beim Referendum in Italien am 4. Dezember haben die Wähler die Gelegenheit, darüber abzustimmen, was manch einer als die umfangreichste Verfassungsreform seit der Abschaffung der Monarchie nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg betrachtet. Dass Ministerpräsident Matteo Renzi versprochen hat, im Fall der Ablehnung der Reformen durch die Wähler zurückzutreten, könnte daran liegen, dass sich alle drei italienischen Oppositionsparteien für einen Austritt aus der Eurozone einsetzen.

Nach den Überraschungssiegen der „Leave“-Kampagne bei der britischen Brexit-Abstimmung und von Donald Trump bei den US-Präsidentschaftswahlen hat vor der italienischen Abstimmung verständlicherweise niemand mehr großes Vertrauen in Umfragen. Es gibt allerdings einen beunruhigenden Echtzeitindikator für die Investorenstimmung: die Kapitalflucht aus Italien, die in diesem Jahr zugenommen hat.

Dafür gibt es in der jüngsten Vergangenheit einen Präzedenzfall: Im Sommer 2015 standen der kurzfristige Zahlungsverzug Griechenlands gegenüber Krediten des Internationalen Währungsfonds und die Einführung von Kapitalkontrollen und Auszahlungsrestriktionen im Zentrum des Eurozonen-Dramas. Die Spannungen zwischen der griechischen und der deutschen Regierung waren auf dem Höhepunkt, und die Spekulationen darüber, ob Griechenland in der Eurozone bleiben würde, eskalierten.

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