Pedro Molina

¿Podemos regular el riesgo sistémico?

MILÁN – En los dos últimos años, dos episodios peligrosos de inestabilidad financiera y cambios repentinos en la dinámica de mercado han azotado a la economía mundial. Es probable que estas situaciones se repitan, porque la economía global está tambaleante en varios sentidos a medida que va saliendo de la crisis, particularmente en términos de deuda soberana y la estructura de la demanda global.

Los riesgos sistémicos generan la mayoría de las crisis y plantean un desafío por varias razones. En primer lugar, no son fáciles de detectar con confianza, y son aún más difíciles de probar. En segundo lugar, predecir el momento exacto de un punto de quiebre (cuando las burbujas estallan, los mercados se cierran y el crédito se congela) está, y probablemente siga estando, más allá de nuestras posibilidades. Finalmente, las crisis son episodios sumamente no lineales, lo que significa que ocurren sin demasiado aviso previo.

Los estallidos periódicos de inestabilidad imponen elevados costos sociales a quienes menos tuvieron que ver con sus causas. Si se repite, este patrón puede erosionar la confianza en los mercados y los reguladores financieros, lo que bien podría derivar en una regulación de mano dura, la expansión del estado y el alejamiento de la globalización.

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