能改革《稳定协议》吗?

欧盟委员会不久前提议,对《稳定和增长协议》(SGP)的实施方式做出重要的调整。目前委员会和ECOFIN(欧元区财长委员会)正在对此项建议和成员国提出的其它议案进行审阅,并将于2005年上半年做出决定。但最终决定出台之前,《协议》将如何修改仍然很不确定。

改革的必要性显而易见:结构性因素在欧元区近年来的预算赤字总额中占到了75-80%,而且2002年以后《协议》规定的国家预算赤字不超过国内生产总值3%的上限也屡次被突破。虽然芬兰和爱尔兰等面积较小的成员国(其中也包括西班牙)和丹麦、瑞典两个非欧元区国家一直坚持财政平衡或小有盈余(尽管盈余量日渐减少)的预算原则,但英、法、德等欧盟最大的成员都不愿或无力遵守这项规则。

实际上,法德两国由于违反《协议》,2003年11月刚刚勉强逃过一次金融制裁。尽管欧洲法院稍后宣布这项决定无效,但事情却已经陷入了僵局。因此,预算行为或《协议》规定两者当中,必须有一个要做出改变。

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