¿El FMI puede prevenir una catástrofe global?

Cuando los líderes financieros mundiales se reúnan en Singapur este mes para las reuniones conjuntas del Banco Mundial y del Fondo Monetario Internacional, deben abordar un interrogante particularmente importante. ¿Hay alguna manera de persuadir a los miembros más importantes del FMI, especialmente Estados Unidos y China, de que ayuden a disipar los riesgos planteados por los desequilibrios comerciales masivos del mundo?

Este año, Estados Unidos pedirá prestados alrededor de 800.000 millones de dólares para financiar su déficit comercial. Increíblemente, Estados Unidos hoy está absorbiendo aproximadamente las dos terceras partes de todo el ahorro neto global, una situación sin precedentes históricos.

Si bien esta orgía de endeudamiento podría tener un final halagüeño, como especuló el presidente de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, Ben Bernanke, la mayoría de los líderes financieros mundiales tienen razón al preocuparse por una realineación más precipitosa que probablemente desataría una depreciación masiva del dólar y posiblemente algo mucho peor. De hecho, si quienes dictan las políticas siguen adoptando una actitud pasiva, no resulta difícil imaginar una marcada desaceleración global o, incluso, una crisis financiera devastadora.

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