国际货币基金组织能否阻止一场世界性的灾难?

当世界金融领袖本月在新加坡济济一堂,参加世界银行/国际货币基金组织联席会议的时候,有一个重要问题他们必须面对,那就是能否找到办法,劝说中美两个国际货币基金组织最大的成员国为消除大规模世界贸易不平衡所带来的危险贡献自己的力量。

今年,美国要借约8,000亿美元填补贸易赤字。令人难以置信的是,美国现在吸收了约三分之二的全球净存款,这样的情况是史无前例的。

虽然这场借贷风波有可能像美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)所期望的那样平稳结束,但绝大多数世界金融领袖对轻率调整可能引发大规模美元贬值,甚至带来更大灾难的忧虑也不无道理。实际上,如果决策者继续这样不闻不问,那么发生全球发展速度放缓甚至破坏性金融危机的后果都不难想见。

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