Paul Lachine

Uma União Sem Euro?

BERKELEY – A crise da Europa entrou numa fase de abrandamento, o que não é por acaso. O actual período de relativa acalmia coincide com a aproximação das eleições federais da Alemanha, em 2013, às quais a chanceler em exercício, Angela Merkel, se vai candidatar como a mulher que salvou o euro.

Mas a crise voltará, se não for antes das eleições da Alemanha, será depois. A Europa do Sul não fez o suficiente para aumentar a sua competitividade, enquanto a Europa do Norte não fez o suficiente para aumentar a procura. O peso da dívida mantêm-se avassalador e a economia europeia continua incapaz de crescer. Em todo o continente, as divisões políticas estão a agravar-se. Por todas estas razões, o fantasma de um colapso da zona euro ainda não foi descartado.

As consequências de um colapso não seriam agradáveis. Qualquer que fosse o país que precipitasse tal situação – a Alemanha por ameaçar abandonar o euro ou a Grécia ou a Espanha por efectivamente fazê-lo – iria despoletar o caos económico e incorrer na ira dos seus vizinhos. Para se protegerem das consequências financeiras, os governos iriam invocar cláusulas obscuras dos tratados da EU, de forma a implantarem controlos temporários sobre os fluxos de capital e delimitarem os seus sistemas bancários. Iriam fechar as fronteiras para impedir a fuga de capitais. Seria uma situação de cada país por si.

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