Paul Lachine

L’Union sans l’euro ?

BERKELEY – La crise européenne est entrée dans une phase d’accalmie, ce qui n’est pas le fruit du hasard. L’actuelle période de calme relatif coïncide avec la perspective prochaine de l’élection fédérale allemande de 2013, à laquelle verra se présenter la chancelière sortante Angela Merkel en tant que personnalité ayant réussi à sauver l’euro.

Pour autant, la crise reviendra bel et bien, si ce n’est avant la prochaine élection allemande, après celle-ci. L’Europe du Sud n’a pas fait suffisamment pour accroître sa compétitivité, l’Europe du Nord n’étant quant à elle pas parvenue à stimuler la demande. Le fardeau de la dette demeure écrasant, et l’économie européenne dans l’incapacité de croître. Sur tout le continent, les divisions politiques se creusent. Pour toutes ces raisons, le spectre d’un effondrement de la zone euro n’est toujours pas dissipé.

Les conséquences d’un tel effondrement seraient désastreuses. Quel que soit l’État le précipitant – qu’il s’agisse d’une Allemagne menaçant d’abandonner de l’euro, d’une Grèce ou d’une Espagne l’abandonnant effectivement – celui-ci engendrerait un chaos économique ainsi que la colère de ses voisins. Pour se préserver de la tourmente financière, les gouvernements invoqueraient alors un certain nombre de clauses obscures des traités de l’UE afin d’imposer un contrôle temporaire sur les flux de capitaux et d’isoler leur propre système bancaire. Ils fermeraient leurs frontières afin d’endiguer la fuite des capitaux. Les États se livreraient à la règle du chacun pour soi.

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