Paul Lachine

一个没有欧元的联盟?

发自伯克利——不出所料,欧洲的危机如今进入了一段平静期。当前这段相对安定的时间又与德国2013年联邦大选的临近结合在了一起,而现任德国总理安吉拉·默克尔将以欧元女救星的面目竞逐连任。

但危机还是会卷土重来的,不是在德国大选之前,就是在其后。南欧地区在增强自身竞争力方面依然做得不够,而北欧地区的需求刺激措施也不尽人意。债务负担依旧沉重,欧洲经济也始终无力增长。放眼整个大陆,政治分化正不断加深。由此看来,那只欧元区崩溃的幽灵还是挥之不去。

崩溃的后果可不是什么赏心悦目的东西。无论这一结果是由哪个国家促成——威胁抛弃欧元的德国,还是确实放弃欧元的希腊西班牙等国——都将引发一场经济大混乱并激起临近各国的愤怒。为了保护自身不受金融冲击的影响,各国政府将引用欧盟条约中的模糊条款来强加针对资金流的临时监管措施并把这些资金专门用在本国银行系统之上。它们会关闭自身边界阻止资金外逃。各人自扫门前雪,哪管他人瓦上霜。

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