Quand l'éléphant danse avec le dragon

TRIVANDRUM, INDE – On a pris l'habitude, notamment en Occident, de mettre l'Inde et la Chine dans le même panier. On considère que ce sont les deux grands pays qui vont dominer le monde, les nouveaux prétendants au leadership mondial - la réponse de l'Orient à des siècles de  domination occidentale.

Deux livres présentent explicitement ces deux pays comme formant un tout. L'un, The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What It Means for All of Us [L'éléphant et le dragon: la montée de l'Inde et de la Chine et ce que cela  signifie pour nous], a été écrit par Robin Meredith et l'autre, Billions of Entrepreneurs: How China and India are Reshaping their Futures – and Yours [Des milliards d'entrepreneurs : comment la Chine et l'Inde redessinent leur avenir… et le votre], par Tarun Khanna, professeur à la Harvard Business School. Ces deux auteurs estiment que la montée en puissance récente de l'Inde et de la Chine constitue un bouleversement économique et politique. On parle parfois même de "Chininde", comme si les deux pays étaient soudés l'un à l'autre dans l'imaginaire international.

Je fais parti des sceptiques. Et pas seulement parce que la Chine et l'Inde n'ont pas grand chose en commun - si ce n'est qu'à elles deux elles représentent une grande partie de l'Asie - mais aussi parce qu'elles en sont à des stades de développement très différents. La Chine a entamé sa libéralisation économique 15 ans avant l'Inde, atteignant un taux de croissance à deux chiffres alors que celui de l'Inde n'était que de 5%. Son taux de croissance composé, plus élevé et reposant sur une base plus large que celui de l'Inde, montre qu'elle ne joue pas dans la même catégorie que cette dernière.

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