象和龙可以共舞吗?

特里凡得琅,印度——最近,特别是在西方,同时谈论印度和中国非常时髦。这两个大国被说成是要领导世界,在西方统治了几个世纪后世界地位新的竞争者,以及对西方多代经济成功的亚洲回答。

确实,有两本新书明确地把两个国家类比在一起:罗宾·梅雷迪斯(Robyn Meredith)的《象和龙:印度和中国的崛起以及其对我们所有人的意义》以及哈佛商业教授塔润·汉纳(Tarun Khanna)的《几十亿企业家:中国和印度怎样改变他们的未来-以及你的》。这两本书都把最近中国和印度的崛起看作是改变了世界的经济和政治结构。有些人甚至把两个国家合称“Chindia”,好像在国际想象中这两个国家是连体的一样。

我对这样的观点表示怀疑。这不仅是因为除了他们共同位于一个叫做“亚洲”的巨大大陆以外,中国和印度的共同点非常少,,而且因为他们处在非常不同的发展阶段。中国比印度早十五年开始经济自由化,这使其经济增率长达到两位数,而这个时候印度的经济增长率仍然在 5%左右徘徊,而且随着中国经济的复合增长,已经使他和印度处于完全不同的经济发展梯队并且在一个更大的基数上持续更快增长。

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