Kann Russland gerettet werden?

MOSKAU – Russlands Wirtschaft bricht zusammen, doch die Situation könnte noch schlimmer sein. Die globale Wirtschaftskrise hat die Regierung endgültig gezwungen, sinnvolle politische Maßnahmen zu ergreifen und somit die Katastrophe abzuwenden – zumindest fürs Erste.

Die offiziellen Prognosen für das russische BIP-Wachstum 2009 bleiben positiv, doch bereiten sich die meisten Analysten, auch in den Regierungsbehörden, auf eine schwere Rezession vor – die tatsächlich im vierten Quartal 2008 begonnen zu haben scheint. Der Zusammenbruch der Börse – ihr Fall um 72 % ist der stärkste Rückgang unter den großen aufstrebenden Märkten – ist lediglich das sichtbarste Anzeichen dafür.

Selbst Russlands Oligarchen verpfänden ihre Yachten und verkaufen ihre Privatjets. Die Anzeichen für politische Instabilität steigen. Die Umfragewerte für Russlands Präsidenten und Premierminister gehen in den Keller. Auf der Straße haben Massenproteste begonnen – die nicht von den Oppositionsparteien angeführt werden, sondern von Arbeitern und Familien aus der Mittelschicht, die sich mit dem Verlust ihrer Arbeitsstellen und abnehmenden Löhnen konfrontiert sehen. Vor allem verlangen die Demonstranten den Rücktritt der Regierung – das war vor nur einem Jahr noch undenkbar.

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