俄罗斯能得救吗?

莫斯科——俄罗斯经济正在崩溃,但局势仍有进一步恶化的可能。全球经济危机最终迫使政府接受了明智的政策,也因此避开了危机——至少现在是这样。

对2009年俄罗斯国内生产总值增长的官方预测仍充斥着乐观情绪,但多数分析人士,包括政府官员在内,都做好准备迎接一场严重的衰退——事实上,这场衰退似乎在2008年的第四季度就已经开始。股市的崩盘——其高达72%的跌幅为所有主要新兴市场之最——只不过是这场衰退最明显的标志。

就连俄罗斯的寡头们都在典当游艇,卖掉私人飞机。政治动荡的迹象正在愈演愈烈。俄罗斯总统和总理的支持率正在降低。大规模街头游行已经开始——这次的领导者不是政治反对党派,而是面临失业和工资下降的工人和中产阶级家庭。更重要的是,抗议人群要求政府辞职——这在短短一年前还是想都不敢想的事。

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