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Politics

拜登能拯救世界吗？

Oct 7, 2020 Kemal Derviş

华盛顿—11月3日的美国总统竞选结果将给美国带来巨大的后果，包括经济政策、种族平等、司法、医疗以及美国民主的总体平等性等方面。但大选的国际影响也同样深远和持久。特别是，如果民主党提名人、前副总统乔·拜登（Joe Biden）获胜，能否阻止危险的大国冲突，开启国际合作的新时代？

如果总统特朗普连任，未必会在第二个任期寻求更多海外冲突。相反，随着特朗普摆出强硬姿态的选举动机的消失，他可能会不再那么鹰派（主要是对中国），在可能的时候追求“经济协议”。

事实上，特朗普政府对于“价值观”和人权的坚持也会一并停止。毕竟，特朗普完全可以接受独裁，国务卿麦克·蓬佩奥（Mike Pompeo）最近抨击中国侵犯人权也主要是为大选做戏，而不是基于道德信念证据。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 15 Comments on this article

眼光 Canadian / China Oct 12, 2020

Maybe the USA should not get involved in other countries affairs . Who cares who wins . In USA you buy your way to a presidential win . Money talks in USA .
- P. Kamath Oct 14, 2020
  
  Don’t be silly. Money talks everywhere. Do you know any utopias to name ot two?
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Mirek Fatyga Oct 10, 2020

I think viewing possible Biden administration as anything but a transition into unknown, with very limited cause for optimism, would be grievously misguided for the rest of the world. The truth is that the "old" United States, the leader of the free world and the champion of human rights is gone for good. Not that the US of the past was some sort of White Knight, given the sordid history of her Asian and Central/South American adventures but, on balance, the US was the force for the good and a stabilizing force, considering the typical horror that is human nature.

The US of today is in the midst of a protracted ,severe political crisis with wholly unknown outcome. The two party political system that provided significant stability in the post WW2 world is now the source of instability, as one of the parties has gone entirely rogue and there is no quick way to re-orient such a system. One would be tempted to compare the US to Italy, but the intrinsic rigidity of the US political system is making even this comparison very imperfect. The additional, complicating factor in this picture is the "imperial legacy", which is a large and influential military industrial complex which gives the US some semblance of Russia. It is, in other words, it's own little Frankenstein, so there are no good analogies here to be made. It is an ongoing, somewhat unique, experiment with frightning implications. Absent the military angle, I would say that the US is heading towards South American model and fate, but that admixture of Russia complicates things. A breakup is may also be an increasingly serious possibility, though likely not an immediate prospect.

The world has entered a new and a dangerous phase, a phase that could actually end the western civilization because of easy availability of nuclear weapons. Finding the way out will not be easy, but facing the new reality is paramount.
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Larry Melton Oct 8, 2020

If Biden gets elected, this country will become a train wreck. Part of the problem with politics is there are too many politicians. The sheer fact that the guy has been in politics for forty seven years should scare the liv'n daylights out of normal people.

Take a good look at his record, for what it's worth and it is a closet full of moths and spider webs. The guy is the Art Carney to Jackie Gleason. He has nothing to bring to the table and the sheer fact that he could win will send the markets into a free fall.

Be careful what you wish for.
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Peter McLoughlin Oct 8, 2020

Under a Biden administration “current tensions on trade, industrial policies, and technology would persist…” It is these that are driving the US and China towards War – world war – regardless of who wins on 3 November. There is no divergence on national interests between the two parties: history shows when core interests clash so do nations’ armies.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
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Kien Choong Oct 8, 2020

I question the assumption in this article that China doesn't want to be part of the multilateral system. This is clearly not the case. One might however reasonably argue that China wants to have a say on how the multilateral system works.

It's frustrating and tiresome to read intelligent commentators making unjustified assumptions about China.
- kemal dervis Oct 9, 2020
  
  Thank you for your comments. I did say that China would want to be part of a renewed and better multilateralism which would also be good for China and I agree that China has the right to a greater weight reflecting its size in many organizations, But I am afraid that both powers have been engaged in behavior that could lead to a dangerous division of the world. I am hopeful that a new administration in the US, if it is decisive and sincere, could reverse that trend for the benefit of all. The perils humanity as a whole faces are so great that cooperation is the only way to counter them and I am optimistic that many young people today would support decisive action. Pessimism is often a debilitating and self fulfilling prophesy
  - Kien Choong Oct 9, 2020
    
    Dear Sir, thank you for reading my comment and replying. I think there is an unjustified "false equivalence" being drawn between the US and China. It seems clear of the two, only one party has clearly gone out its way to act unilaterally and undermine multilateral institutions. While the other party has consistently proclaimed its support for multilateralism and desire to engage multilaterally. I'll let you guess which party is which.
    
    I'm unclear which behaviour of China's you think has contributed to the division. It strikes me that there is a certain "victim blaming" in attributing fault to China.
    
    I feel that this attempt to "blame both sides" is similar to past views that there are two sides to the climate change debate, or in the US political context, the Democrats vs Republicans are both equally at fault for Congressional impasse. No, it's one side of the climate change debate that is mistaken, and it is one side of the US political spectrum that is acting in bad faith. It's unhelpful for respected commentators to try to play an "even hand", attributing fault to both sides, when fault disproportionately lies on one side.
    
    You might be right that China has engaged in behaviour that you think contributed to the division (although what exactly it might be is mysterious to me). But even if that is the case, it seems quite clear that it's the US that has gone out its way to undermine multilateralism, and adopt policies to entrench its hegemony in the world, not just militarily, but its economic hegemony (especially its control of the international financial system), and its cultural hegemony (in relation to its influence over the international mainstream media and social media).
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- Ray B Oct 8, 2020
  
  So much faith in the world coming together for the common good with little proof it works for the last 70 years. Self-interest is what makes the world go round for countries, right UN? Biden was a foreign policy failure of leading from behind like Obama. You can't lead from the back of the team or buy appeasement at any level. The EU is bankrupt and dysfunctional. Member states want out. China is expanding throughout the world and has no interest in being a "fair" trading partner. China is like the Borg in Star-Trek you will be assimilated what yours is mine, and mine is mine. The US has started to fight back only in the last three years. Today the US is fighting a trade and cold war almost unilaterally where the new Biden administration cannot admit China is a problem. The world is along for the ride and will give up any of their freedom for perceived security. Before Trump, the world wanted the US out of their business, and now they want us back in. So conflicted. Can Biden save the world? Nope not a chance.
  - Susan Robinson Oct 12, 2020
    
    You're distorting and misinforming...
    
    US/UK leaders were attacking countries (Iraq, Libya, etc.) illegally (which are war crimes) that resulted in millions of innocent people (including children, women..) being killed or injured or displaced as refugees traumatized and terrified in hellish conditions which include (among other horrible things) the gang-rape of14-year-old Iraqi girl Abeer Qassim Hamza al-Janabi (in 2006) by US Army who also murdered her family (occurring in their family home).
    US/UK leaders must be held accountable for all these war crimes.
    
    US leaders overthrew Iran's democratically elected government (in 1953) and replacing it with a puppet dictator (the Shah).
    
    US leaders encouraged and backed Saddam (then Iraqi dictator) attacking Iran in a decade-long war that killed a million people
    
    US army shot down Iran Airbus Air flight 655 (passenger flight to Dubai) with SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes in 1988.
    
    US leaders have repeatedly broken laws and terrorized any countries that the US leaders do not like, these US leaders are war criminals.
    
    Iran, all along, was complying the nuclear deal, the IAEA had said.
    
    US is the guilty party that unilaterally repudiating the Iran nuclear deal, US leaders routinely bully and terrorize other countries, impose illegal sanctions, unilaterally reneging Paris Climate Agreement, TPP, etc. US leaders are the ones that should be condemned and held accountable.
    
    This is a multilateral world governed by UN Charter, so all countries (and their systems of governments) should co-exist mutually whilst not imposing one's own values/systems on others and not interfering internal affairs of other countries.
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  - Kien Choong Oct 9, 2020
    
    Thanks for your reply. If I understand it correctly, you see it as a good thing that the US is acting unilaterally vs multilaterally. Correct?
    
    I admire your honesty. Lots of Americans purport to support multilateralism. But if you are representative of most Americans, it seems that that is really not the case. I hope more Americans are as honest as you are!
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  - John Douglas Oct 8, 2020
    
    A "President" Biden/Harris could build upon the Nobel Prize winning foreign policy successes of the Obama administration in Libya, Egypt, Syria, vs ISIS, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan. Not to mention getting two embassies and a consulate overrun. Then there is the genius of Obama's handling of the Russian take over of Crimea and parts of Ukraine. Obama also brilliantly allowed North Korea to develop nuclear weapons. Obama perpetually "pivoted towards China" without ever getting there. Finally, Obama masterfully negotiated with Iran, giving them all they wanted for nothing in return and signed away the US future in the Paris accord that allows China to do nothing towards Climate Change, while chaining the US to drastic carbon reductions. And who can forget Obama's eagerness to sell out to Cuba? Yes, that is a great foreign policy legacy and one to which we should eagerly return under a Harris/Biden administration.
    - Susan Robinson Oct 12, 2020
      
      US/UK leaders were attacking countries (Iraq, Libya, etc.) illegally (which are war crimes) that resulted in millions of innocent people (including children, women..) being killed or injured or displaced as refugees traumatized and terrified in hellish conditions which include (among other horrible things) the gang-rape of14-year-old Iraqi girl Abeer Qassim Hamza al-Janabi (in 2006) by US Army who also murdered her family (occurring in their family home).
      US/UK leaders must be held accountable for all these war crimes.
      
      US leaders overthrew Iran's democratically elected government (in 1953) and replacing it with a puppet dictator (the Shah).
      
      US leaders encouraged and backed Saddam (then Iraqi dictator) attacking Iran in a decade-long war that killed a million people
      
      US army shot down Iran Airbus Air flight 655 (passenger flight to Dubai) with SM-2MR surface-to-air missile fired from USS Vincennes in 1988.
      
      US leaders have repeatedly broken laws and terrorized any countries that the US leaders do not like, these US leaders are war criminals.
      
      This is a multilateral world governed by UN Charter, so all countries (and their systems of governments) should co-exist mutually whilst not imposing one's own values/systems on others and not interfering internal affairs of other countries.
      
      For CO2 emissions, here are CO2 emissions (in tons per capita) for some countries:
      Australia = 16.8, US = 16.1, Canada =16.1, South Korea = 13.6, Russia =12.1, Japan = 9.4, China = 8.0
      
      For RE (renewable energy), here are some data:
      Country Total (GWh) Total RE(GWh) RE % of total
      United States 4,322,038 637,076 14.7%
      Japan 1,057,976 158,822 15.0%
      China 7,142,200 1,739,400 24.35%
      Germany 514,860 237,610 46.2%
      India 1,550,564 261,790 16.88%
      Australia 256,563 37,205 14.5%
      Canada 667,438 433,597 65.0%
      - Susan Robinson Oct 12, 2020
        
        Country Total (GWh) Total RE(GWh) RE % of total
        United States 4,322,038 637,076 14.70%
        Japan 1,057,976 158,822 15.00%
        China 7,142,200 1,739,400 24.35%
        Germany 514,860 237,610 46.20%
        India 1,550,564 261,790 16.88%
        Australia 256,563 37,205 14.50%
        Canada 667,438 433,597 65.00%
        
        JOHN DOUGLAS, please see/compare the above data for some countries.
        
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