L'Amérique peut-elle réussir en Irak ?

Pour justifier leur volonté de renverser régime de Saddam Hussein, le président Bush et ses principaux conseillers avancent deux arguments majeurs. D'une part, la guerre contre l'Irak constitue un élément de la guerre contre le terrorisme. Selon le vice-ministre de la défense, Paul Wolfowitz, cela permettrait d'éviter, tant dans l'intérêt de l'Amérique que du reste du monde, "que des armes de destruction massive ne tombent entre les mains de terroristes".

D'autre part, l'équipe du président Bush promet de ramener la démocratie en Irak, un changement qui est supposé favoriser la démocratisation des autres régimes arabes autoritaires. L'apparition d'un régime démocratique et pacifique en Irak devrait selon elle faire tache d'huile dans la région. En remodelant le paysage politique du Moyen-Orient, les dirigeants américains espèrent s'en prendre à la racine de l'islamisme.

Messieurs Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney et Wolfowitz aiment à se faire passer pour des réalistes, mais leur point de vue est-il vraiment réaliste ? Est-il fondé sur une évaluation sérieuse de la complexité de la situation en Irak et dans la région ou bien est-il conditionné par l'idéologie et des voeux pieux ? Une guerre contre l'Irak va-t-elle servir les USA dans leur combat contre le terrorisme ou bien rendra-t-elle les Américains plus vulnérables ?

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