¿Puede sobrevivir la India a la mundialización?

Durante muchos años después de la independencia, declarada en 1947, la India siguió siendo un país grande y pobre. Los gobiernos sucesivos adoptaron políticas que hicieron del Estado el motor del crecimiento y del desarrollo, al tiempo que limitaban en gran medida las relaciones económicas mutuas con el resto del mundo.

La población de la India es ahora mucho mayor y el país sigue siendo pobre... pero no tanto como podría haber sido. Hace más de un decenio, el país dio un cambio de rumbo que ha propiciado un mayor crecimiento y una reducción de la pobreza. Se liberalizó el comercio exterior y se suprimieron muchos controles estatales de las inversiones internas. La mentalidad de muchos intelectuales y dirigentes -y tal vez eso fuera lo más importante- cambió a favor de una postura más orientada hacia el mercado, incluida una mayor integración en la economía mundial.

Todo ello constituye un avance decisivo para el desarrollo de la India. Como señala el premio Nobel James Heckman en su reciente análisis de los deficientes resultados de la economía alemana después de la reunificación, con las nuevas oportunidades en materia de tecnología y comercio la preservación del status quo resulta más costosa. ``En la próxima generación los vencedores en el comercio mundial'', sostiene Heckman, ``serán los países que cuenten con una fuerza laboral instruida y puedan reaccionar con flexibilidad''.

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