高油价能变成好事吗?

仲夏时节,世界油价涨过了每桶40美元大关,此后又一路飚升至每桶50几美元。比起1979年伊朗革命时的油价最高点,今天的油价还仅仅是那时的三分之二左右,而未来市场预计油价会开始回落,并在每桶45美元左右启稳。但油价的居高不下却促使预言家们开始对经济增长充满了渴望。

"高油价还会继续下去,"美国经济预言家艾伦·西奈如是说。"油价上涨必须扣除增长因素,也可能会导致核心通货膨胀的抬升。"实际西奈认为,高油价是"2000-2001年股市泡沫破裂后…最大的危险。"

持这种观点的绝非西奈一人。如果油价保持在每桶40美元的水平,那么短期内对各国国内生产总值的影响可以忽略不计。可如果油价在60美元或附近居高不下,那么预计人均国内生产总值的增长每年将下降1%。

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