高油价能变成好事吗?

仲夏时节,世界油价涨过了每桶40美元大关,此后又一路飚升至每桶50几美元。比起1979年伊朗革命时的油价最高点,今天的油价还仅仅是那时的三分之二左右,而未来市场预计油价会开始回落,并在每桶45美元左右启稳。但油价的居高不下却促使预言家们开始对经济增长充满了渴望。

"高油价还会继续下去,"美国经济预言家艾伦·西奈如是说。"油价上涨必须扣除增长因素,也可能会导致核心通货膨胀的抬升。"实际西奈认为,高油价是"2000-2001年股市泡沫破裂后…最大的危险。"

持这种观点的绝非西奈一人。如果油价保持在每桶40美元的水平,那么短期内对各国国内生产总值的影响可以忽略不计。可如果油价在60美元或附近居高不下,那么预计人均国内生产总值的增长每年将下降1%。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/xF3FK1M/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now