Le Hezbollah peut-il survivre au printemps arabe ?

BEYROUTH – Il y a trois ans, les dirigeants du Moyen-Orient les plus populaires, selon les sondages d’opinion régionaux, étaient le chef du Hezbollah Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, le président syrien Bashar al-Assad, et le président iranien Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A l’époque, ce que l’on appréciait chez eux était le fait qu’ils tenaient clairement tête à Israël au Liban et à Gaza, et rejetaient la politique agressive des Etats-Unis dans la région.

Avec le printemps arabe, l’opinion publique de la région a préféré privilégier les droits civils et la réforme démocratique plutôt que la politique étrangère. Aujourd’hui, Assad est honni, le gouvernement d’Ahmadinejad est accusé d’opprimer dans la violence ses propres manifestants pro-démocratie, et le Hezbollah tout comme l’Iran se voient accusés de maintenir leur soutien à Assad, alors même qu’il massacre son propre peuple.

Il en résulte que le Hezbollah n’est plus un mouvement aussi largement populaire dans les mondes arabe et musulman que par le passé, mais il demeure une force lourdement armée et efficace. Et, en politique, pour reprendre les mots de Machiavel, il est plus important d’être craint que d’être aimé.

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