¿Puede Grecia evitar el león?

ATENAS ­­– A pesar de que la Unión Europea y el Fondo Monetario Internacional están sentando las bases para la primera ronda de rescates enormes, el debate gira en torno a si Grecia podrá evitar un incumplimiento de pagos de deuda soberana.

Algunos consideran a Grecia como una segunda Argentina y toman nota del sorprendente paralelismo con el país que en 2001 estableció el récord de incumplimiento de pagos más grande del mundo (en dólares). Otros, como el primer ministro griego, George Papandreou, ven difíciles los problemas del país pero manejables, y se quejan   de la interferencia de especuladores extranjeros mal intencionados.

Evitar el incumplimiento de pagos puede ser posible, pero no será fácil. Uno sólo tiene que mirar los datos oficiales, incluida la deuda externa de Grecia, que asciende a un 170% de la renta nacional, o al enorme déficit presupuestal del gobierno (casi del 13% del PIB).

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