Jon Krause

¿Pueden los mercados en ascenso salvar la economía mundial?

MILÁN – A lo largo de los dos últimos años, los países industriales han experimentado accesos de profunda inestabilidad financiera. Actualmente, están lidiando con problemas en aumento de deuda soberana y desempleado elevado. Sin embargo, las economías en ascenso, en tiempos consideradas mucho más vulnerables, han resultado ser notablemente resistentes. Al recuperar los niveles de crecimiento anteriores al estallido de 2008, los resultados de China, de India y del Brasil son un importante motor de expansión para la economía mundial actual.

El crecimiento elevado y la estabilidad financiera en las economías en ascenso están contribuyendo a facilitar el enorme ajuste que afrontan los países industriales, pero ese crecimiento tiene importantes consecuencias a largo plazo. Si se mantiene la tónica actual, la economía mundial resultará transformada permanentemente. Concretamente, no mucho más de un decenio hace falta para que la proporción del PIB mundial correspondiente a las economías en desarrollo supere el 50 por ciento, si se calibra con precios de mercado.

Así, pues, es importante saber si esta fase de crecimiento intenso es sostenible. La respuesta tiene dos partes. Una depende de la capacidad de las economías en ascenso para gestionar su éxito; la otra tiene que ver con la medida en que la economía mundial pueda adaptarse a ese éxito. La respuesta a la primera pregunta es tranquilizadora; la respuesta a la segunda no lo es.

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