Jon Krause

Могут ли развивающиеся рынки спасти мировую экономику?

МИЛАН. За последние два года индустриальные страны столкнулись с серьезными приступами финансовой нестабильности. В настоящее время они борются с проблемой увеличения суверенного долга и высоким уровнем безработицы. Тем не менее, развивающиеся экономики, которые раньше считались гораздо более уязвимыми, показали значительную эластичность. По мере возвращения на уровень предкризисного 2008 года показатели Китая, Индии и Бразилии являются важным двигателем расширения сегодняшней мировой экономики.

Высокий рост и финансовая стабильность в странах с развивающейся экономикой помогают облегчить массированные корректировки, которые предстоит провести индустриальным странам. Однако этот рост также имеет долгосрочные последствия. Если будет сохранена существующая модель, то мировая экономика будет постоянно преображаться. В частности, потребуется не более десяти лет, чтобы доля в рыночных ценах в мировом ВВП развивающихся экономик превысила 50%.

Поэтому важно знать, насколько устойчива эта фаза роста. Ответ состоит из двух частей. Одна часть зависит от способности стран с формирующимся рынком управлять своим собственным успехом; другая зависит от степени адаптации в глобальной экономике этого успеха. Ответ на первый вопрос обнадеживает; ответ на второй ‑ нет.

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