Jon Krause

هل تتمكن الأسواق الناشئة من إنقاذ اقتصاد العالم؟

ميلانو ـ على مدى العامين الماضيين شهدت البلدان الصناعية نوبات حادة من عدم الاستقرار المالي. وفي الوقت الحالي، تتصارع هذه البلدان مع مشكلات الديون السيادية المتعاظمة وارتفاع مستويات البطالة. ورغم ذلك فإن الاقتصاد في الأسواق الناشئة، التي كانت تعتبر ذات يوم أكثر عُرضة للخطر، كان قادراً على المقاومة بشكل ملحوظ. ومع عودة النمو إلى مستويات ما قبل اندلاع الأزمة في عام 2008، فإن أداء الصين والهند والبرازيل يُعَد محركاً بالغ الأهمية لتوسع الاقتصاد العالمي اليوم.

إن مستويات النمو المرتفعة والاستقرار المالي في الأسواق الناشئة من الأمور التي تساعد في تيسير عملية التقويم والتصحيح الهائلة التي تواجه البلدان الصناعية. بيد أن ذلك النمو يحمل في طياته عواقب مهمة بعيدة الأمد. وإذا تسنى لهذه البلدان الحفاظ على نمط النمو الحالي فإن الاقتصاد العالمي سوف يشهد تحولاً دائماً. والأمر لا يحتاج إلى أكثر من عقد من الزمان على وجه التحديد لكي تتجاوز حصة البلدان ذات الاقتصاد النامي في الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العالمي 50%، إذا ما قيست تلك الحصة بأسعار السوق.

لذا فمن الأهمية بمكان أن نعرف ما إذا كانت مرحلة النمو الجامحة هذه مستدامة. والإجابة على هذا السؤال تتألف من جزأين. الجزء الأول يعتمد على قدرة البلدان ذات الاقتصاد الناشئ على إدارة نجاحها على النحو اللائق؛ والجزء الثاني يرتبط بمدى قدرة الاقتصاد العالمي على استيعاب هذا النجاح. والواقع أن الإجابة على السؤال الأول تبعث على الاطمئنان؛ أما إجابة السؤال الثاني فليست مطمئنة.

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