Dean Rohrer

L’Asie orientale peut-elle coopérer ?

SEOUL – Tandis que la Chine poursuit sa croissance implacable, les peuples de l’Asie de l’est se demandent s’ils pourront un jour entretenir des relations stables et pacifiques tel que l’Europe en connaît aujourd’hui. Etant donné la régularité des grosses prises de bec – à propos d’à peu près tout, depuis de minuscules atolls dans le sud de la mer de Chine jusqu’à l’héritage de la Deuxième Guerre Mondiale – cela peut sembler un vain rêve. Pourtant, la montée puissante du nationalisme et des budgets militaires rend impérative l’obtention d’une stabilité de consensus dans la région. Est-ce possible ?   

Le point de vue « libéral » des relations internationales préconise trois ingrédients : une démocratisation politique, une interdépendance économique plus profonde et des institutions solides pour soutenir les relations multilatérales des états de l’Asie de l’est. Puisque, tel que l’observait il y a longtemps Emmanuel Kant, les états dotés de systèmes politiques démocratiques ont tendance à éviter de s’attaquer les uns les autres, la démocratie devrait être encouragée en vue d’assurer une paix durable.

La poursuite d’une Pax Democratia a depuis longtemps fait partie de la politique étrangère américaine. Et les états européens ont, depuis 1945, fait de la démocratie un pilier de leur intégration. Le problème en Asie orientale est que la vaste variété des systèmes politiques en place dans la région rend un tel consensus démocratique très peu probable, du moins pour l’instant.

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