¿Son creíbles las promesas de Draghi?

LONDRES – Mario Draghi, presidente del Banco Central Europeo, ya ha repetido varias veces que el BCE hará todo lo necesario para salvar al euro. Aunque todavía no hay ningún acuerdo formal, se espera que el BCE anuncie un nuevo programa de compra de bonos públicos después de la reunión de su Consejo de Gobierno, la semana entrante. La pregunta es: ¿funcionará?

Para que este plan realmente ayude a bajar los costos financieros que afrontan Italia y España, su volumen ha de ser tal que permita disipar el riesgo de convertibilidad que hay detrás de la extrema polarización de rendimientos de los bonos públicos dentro de la eurozona, y que se debe a que los inversores no quieren tener títulos de deuda españoles e italianos, por temor a que ambos países se vean obligados a abandonar la unión monetaria. Lamentablemente, es muy improbable que el BCE haga lo suficiente para convencer a los inversores de que la pertenencia de estos países a la eurozona está garantizada para siempre; sobre todo, porque el Bundesbank alemán se opone a un compromiso ilimitado que permita poner tope al costo de endeudamiento.

España, Italia y la periferia de la eurozona se enfrentan a costos financieros reales de una magnitud nunca antes vista, que impiden la recuperación de las inversiones y, por consiguiente, el crecimiento económico. Si estos países no retoman una senda de crecimiento, no podrán disipar las dudas de los inversores acerca de su sostenibilidad fiscal y la solvencia de sus bancos.

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