Peut-on croire Draghi ?

LONDRES – Mario Draghi, le président de la Banque Centrale Européenne, a affirmé à plusieurs reprises que la BCE ferait tout ce qui est nécessaire pour sauver l'euro. Rien n'a encore été accepté officiellement, mais la BCE devrait annoncer un nouveau programme d'achat d'obligations d’Etat après la réunion de la semaine prochaine de son conseil des gouverneurs. Sera-t-il efficace?

S’il veut avoir un impact significatif sur les coûts d'emprunt italiens et espagnols, le dernier effort en date devra être suffisamment important que pour dissiper le risque de convertibilité qui se cache derrière l'extrême polarisation des rendements publics au sein de la zone euro: les investisseurs sont réticents à détenir de la dette espagnole et italienne car ils craignent que les deux pays pourraient être contraints à quitter l'union monétaire. Malheureusement, il est très peu probable que la BCE en fera assez pour convaincre les investisseurs que l'adhésion à la zone euro est définitive et sans équivoque, notamment parce que la Bundesbank allemande s'oppose à tout engagement illimité à plafonner les coûts d'emprunt.

L’Espagne, l’Italie et la périphérie de la zone euro sont aujourd’hui confrontées à des coûts d'emprunt réels sans précédent, qui font obstacle à une reprise de l'investissement et donc de la croissance économique. Or, sans un retour à la croissance, ces pays sont incapables de taire les doutes des investisseurs quant à la soutenabilité de leurs finances publiques et la solvabilité de leurs banques.

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