德拉吉可信吗?

伦敦—欧洲央行行长德拉吉一再宣称欧洲央行将采取一切必要措施拯救欧元。虽然到目前为止还未形成正式一致,但预计欧洲央行将在下周治理委员会会议后出台新的债券购买计划。该计划会奏效吗?

如想大大改变意大利和西班牙的借贷成本,那么最新措施的规模必须足够大,以打消让欧元区国债收益率产生重大差异的兑换风险:投资者厌恶西班牙和意大利国债是因为他们担心这两个国家可能被迫脱离欧元区。不幸的是,欧洲央行不太可能说服投资者相信欧元区成员地位具有无可置疑的永久性,其中一大原因便是德国央行反对任何无期限借贷成本控制承诺。

西班牙、意大利和欧元区外围面临着前所未有的高实际借贷成本,投资复苏——从而经济增长——因此受阻。而如果不能恢复增长,它们就无法打消投资者关于财政可持续性和银行偿付能力的疑虑。

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