Dean Rohrer

Les pays en développement peuvent-ils porter l’économie mondiale?

CAMBRIDGE – Aux premiers jours de la crise financière internationale, un certain optimisme voulait que les pays en développement seraient à même d’éviter le déclin qui a frappé les économies industrielles avancées. Après tout, cette fois-ci, ce ne sont pas eux qui se sont ferrés dans des excès financiers, et leurs fondamentaux économiques semblaient plutôt bons. Mais ces espoirs furent anéantis au fur et à mesure de l’assèchement des prêts internationaux et de l’effondrement des échanges commerciaux, entrainant les pays en développement dans la même spirale que celle des pays industrialisés.

Mais la finance globale et le commerce international ont ressuscité, et nous entendons aujourd’hui une version plus encourageante de ce scénario. Une croissance forte est aujourd’hui envisagée pour les pays en développement, indépendamment de la morosité qui accable à nouveau l’Europe et les Etats-Unis. Plus étonnant : beaucoup s’attendent à ce que les pays en développement deviennent les moteurs de la croissance de l’économie globale. Otaviano Canuto, vice président de la Banque Mondiale, et ses collaborateurs viennent de produire une longue étude qui vient appuyer ce diagnostique optimiste.

Bien des raisons montrent que cet optimisme n’est pas déraisonnable. La plupart des pays en développement ont fait le ménage dans leurs maisons financière et budgétaire et ne sont pas lourdement endettées. Leur gouvernance profite généralement de l’amélioration du processus décisionnaire politique. Les possibilités offertes par les transferts de technologie par participation aux réseaux de production internationaux sont plus importantes que jamais.

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