Dean Rohrer

发展中国家能撑起世界经济的大旗吗?

发自剑桥——在全球经济危机早期,有些人乐观地认为发展中国家不会重蹈发达国家的覆辙。毕竟这次的经济过热问题并不是发展中国家的的责任,而且这些国家的经济基础似乎也非常稳固。但这希望在国际贷款枯竭和贸易崩溃之后迅速化为了泡影,而发展中国家也与发达国家一道坠入了深渊。

但当全球贸易和经济双双恢复元气之后,我们又听到了更多野心勃勃的设想。有人说不管欧美地区如何愁云惨淡,发展中国家已经成为了强劲增长的领头羊。更有甚者还预测发展中国家会成为全球经济增长的核心引擎。而世界银行副行长奥塔维亚诺·卡努托及其同僚最近则撰写了一篇长篇大论的报告来佐证这一乐观的预测。

这种乐观预测的不合理性可以用许多理由来证明。大多数发展中国家都对本国经济和财政进行了整顿并摆脱了高负债;政府治理也随着政策制定水平的提高而得到改善;同时通过参与国际制造业网络来获得技术转移的可能性也大大增加。

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