deflation dawmatt/Flickr

中国能战胜通缩吗?

北京—当经济减速、公司债务高企时,通缩循环将是中国最不堪的噩梦。风险正在堆积。自2012年9月以来,生产者物价指数(PPI)已连续39个月负增长。中国消费物价指数(CPI)尽管仍在正增长,但幅度稳步下降,从2011年7月的6.5%降至今年5月的1.2%。从历史经验看,中国CPI也将很快步入负增长。

中国上一次经历长期通缩是1998—2002年,物价持续下降的原因是1993年开始的货币和财政紧缩,而缺少倒闭企业退出机制则令情况雪上加霜。通胀在1994年达到顶峰(24%),随后从1995年开始下降。但GDP增长很快开始大幅恶化。为了在困难的全球环境下重振增长、在亚洲金融危机的冲击下支持出口,中国政府从1997年11月开始放松货币和财政政策。

但放松来得太晚,强度也太小。1998年CPI通胀开始下降时,生产者物价已经下跌了八个月,并在总共51个月的时间里保持负增长,而CPI在39个月后开始恢复。

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