Können die Zentralbanken noch die Wechselkurse beeinflussen?

LONDON – Am 16. September 1992, einem Datum, das im Vereinigten Königreich als „Schwarzer Mittwoch“ in Verruf geraten ist, gab die Bank of England ihre Anstrengungen auf, das britische Pfund innerhalb seiner erlaubten Spanne im Europäischen Wechselkursmechanismus zu halten. Die Stützung des Pfundes, um es auf dem vorgeschriebenen Kurs zu halten, hatte sich für die Bank und die britische Regierung als untragbar kostspielig erwiesen. Für George Soros dagegen erwies sie sich als äußerst lukrativ.

Seitdem hat die Bank of England alle Formen der Intervention auf den Devisenmärkten vermieden. Zudem hat der Vorfall den internationalen Konsens bestärkt, dass die Geldpolitik der Staaten sich auf die Preisstabilität im Inland konzentrieren und die Wechselkurse gleichzeitig freigeben sollte.

Nach dem Schwarzen Mittwoch setzte sich allgemein die Ansicht durch, dass es einfach unmöglich war, sowohl den Wechselkurs als auch die monetären Bedingungen gleichzeitig in Ordnung zu bringen. In einer Marktwirtschaft mit konvertibler Währung und freien Kapitalflüssen kann demzufolge auf den Wechselkurs kein Einfluss genommen werden, ohne anschließend Anpassungen an anderen Aspekten der Geldpolitik vorzunehmen. Der Versuch, die Wechselkurse mithilfe von Kapitalverkehrskontrollen oder direktem Eingreifen in die Währungsmärkte zu beeinflussen, war zum Scheitern verurteilt und konnte nur äußerst kurzfristig funktionieren.

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