Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
considers how China undermines its own soft power, traces the potential causes of a war over Taiwan, welcomes Europe’s embrace of “smart” power, and more.
Around the world, people increasingly live with the sense that too much is happening, too fast. Chief among the sources of this growing angst are the rise of artificial intelligence, climate change, and Russia's war in Ukraine – each of which demands urgent attention from policymakers and political leaders.
calls attention to the growing challenges posed by AI, climate change, and the war in Ukraine.
发自纽约——当通胀率高于设定目标,同时又爆发了市场流动性和/或资金流动性危机之时,中央银行的各项目标——价格稳定和金融稳定——之间总会不可避免地出现冲突。在这种情况下我认为必须将金融稳定放在首位,因为它是有效实现价格稳定的前提条件。
但这并不意味着央行应该在受到银行危机或类似系统性稳定风险威胁时中止或暂停其反通胀政策。只要在使用央行政策利率锁定通胀的同时利用其资产负债表的规模和构成作为宏观审慎政策工具来锁定金融稳定,那么价格稳定和金融稳定目标之间的冲突应该是可控的。可靠的沟通对于实现这两个目标至关重要。
无风险短期名义利率提升50个基点不会对一个大型发达经济体的金融稳定构成实质性影响。真正影响稳定的是相互关联的流动性和信贷风险溢价,以及——当信贷配给决定一切之时——在缺乏流动性的金融市场上消失的潜在购买者和贷款者。英格兰银行去年在这一点上就做得很好,在时任首相利兹·特拉斯(Liz Truss)的不连贯政策所引发的货币政策紧缩时期,它参与了对长期英国政府债券的临时买入,并通过出售政府资产购买工具(Asset Purchase Facility)持有的英国政府债券推迟了量化紧缩。
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