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货币政策的回归之路

首尔—近几年来,主要发达经济体央行纷纷进入从未涉足过的领域。它们对一系列非常规货币政策工具的使用取得了一些效果,也带来了严重的不确定性,世界经济也没有获得充分稳定。现在,是时候回归更加熟悉的政策领域了。

2008年金融崩溃以来,美联储将政策利率减只几乎为零的水平,并采取了所谓的量化宽松,即从公共和私人部门购买长期证券。欧盟、日本和英国央行很快也推出了类似的非常规政策。结果是巨量廉价流动性帮助稳定了金融部门,恢复了股票和房地产价格,也提高了内需。所有这些都有助于遏制金融危机的后果,让全球经济走向复苏。

但这一激进方针尤其局限性。事实上,印度储备银行行长拉古兰·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan指出,实施多年后,非常规货币政策的收益正在下降,而成本正在上升。意识到这一点,美联储在去年年底结束了量化宽松,并将政策利率提高25个基点。今年美联储可能继续升息,尽管速度和程度仍不确定。

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