¿Puede durar el éxito de Argentina?

BUENOS AIRES - Argentina es un país curioso. Durante los últimos ocho años, su economía mostró indicadores de excepción: el PIB creció cerca de un 70% (casi tan dinámico como China) y el empleo formal aumentó más del 30%. Los sólidos resultados fiscales, sin precedentes en el país, han estado acompañados de excedentes de comercio exterior que son la envidia de incluso los países más fiscalmente solventes del mundo.

Todo esto representa una recuperación totalmente inesperada de la inmensa deuda externa pública y privada de hace sólo una década. De hecho, el fuerte repunte de la Argentina ha generado una enorme acumulación de reservas de divisas para el país.

También es sorprendente el aumento de la tasa de ahorro interno argentino, que ha permitido la autofinanciación de la inversión - que se ha duplicado - y, paradójicamente, flujos de salida de capital. El sólido crecimiento económico, impulsado por los altos precios internacionales de los productos básicos, se ha basado en ingresos fiscales récord y, después de ocho años de comercio en general muy próspero, el sector empresarial del país está en mejor estado que nunca.

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