Kann irgendetwas den Fall des Dollars verlangsamen?

Der „Dollar Denial“, jener Zustand sturer Erkenntnisverweigerung, gemäß welchem Bankiers und Notenbanker behaupten, dass sie über Amerikas fallende Währung nicht weiter besorgt wären, scheint zu Ende zu gehen. Inzwischen hat selbst der Chef der Europäischen Zentralbank Jean Claude Trichet sich dem Chor der Besorgten angeschlossen.

Bei Einführung des Euro lag der Wechselkurs zwischen US-Dollar und Euro bei USD 1,16/EUR 1. Zu diesem Kurs war der Dollar, legt man seine Kaufkraftparität (KPP) als Maßstab an, um etwa 10% unterbewertet. Der Kurs des Dollars stieg zunächst, doch seit 2002 ist er im Wesentlichen stetig gefallen. Jeder Tag scheint neue Tiefststände gegenüber dem Euro zu bringen.

Die Politik erscheint angesichts des fortdauernden Absturzes des Dollars paralysiert. Es gibt viele Gründe für ihre Untätigkeit, doch lässt sich nur schwer der Eindruck vermeiden, dass sie mit den gegenwärtigen akademischen Theorien über die Wechselkurse zusammenhängt.

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