Desháganse de las reservas

El Banco Popular de China y el Banco del Japón –además de otros bancos centrales de Asia- tienen problemas. Han acumulado inmensas reservas de divisas, calculadas en más de 2 billones de dólares. El problema es que casi todas están en dólares de los Estados Unidos... divisa que está perdiendo valor rápidamente.

Todas las posibles opciones para los bancos centrales de Asia parecen igualmente carentes de atractivo. Si no hacen nada y conservan los dólares, sus pérdidas no harán otra cosa que aumentar, pero, si compran más, para procurar que se revalorice el dólar, tendrán simplemente una versión mayor del mismo problema. En cambio, si intentan diversificarlas entre otras divisas, provocarán una bajada más rápida del dólar y sufrirán mayores pérdidas. También es probable que encuentren la misma clase de problema con otras posibles divisas de reserva.

Se ha promocionado el euro como la opción substitutiva del dólar. Algunos europeos entusiastas animaron a los asiáticos a diversificar sus reservas, pero al cabo de unos ańos podría perfectamente repetirse la misma situación con el euro. Unos grandes déficit fiscales y un crecimiento lento podrían convencer a los mercados de divisas de que el euro tiene poco futuro, lo que avivaría las ventas... y, por tanto, las pérdidas de los bancos centrales poseedores de esa divisa.

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