Faire appel aux réserves

La Banque nationale de Chine et la Banque du Japon, ainsi que d’autres banques centrales asiatiques, connaissent aujourd’hui certaines difficultés. Elles ont accumulé de vastes réserves en devises étrangčres, estimées ŕ plus de 2 billions de dollars USD. Malheureusement, la quasi totalité de ces réserves est en dollar américain, une devise en dépréciation rapide.

Toutes les options de politiques économiques disponibles pour les banques centrales asiatiques semblent n’avoir aucun mérite. Si elles ne réagissent pas et conservent tout simplement leurs dollars, leurs pertes iront en s’accroissant. Si elles en achčtent toujours plus dans une tentative de vivifier le dollar, elles finiront avec une version simplement plus importante du męme problčme. Si, au contraire, elles essaient de se diversifier en achetant d’autres monnaies, elles feront chuter le dollar encore plus vite et créeront des pertes plus importantes. Elles rencontreront probablement le męme type de problčme avec d’autres devises de réserve.

L’euro est vanté comme la devise de remplacement ou l’autre choix possible face au dollar. Certains Européens enthousiastes ont ainsi encouragé les Asiatiques ŕ diversifier leurs réserves. Mais le męme scénario pourrait bien se répéter avec l’euro dans quelques années. Les déficits budgétaires importants et le ralentissement de la croissance pourront peut-ętre convaincre les marchés des changes que l’euro a un certain avenir, ce qui alimentera la vague des ventes, et ainsi les pertes des actionnaires des banques centrales.

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