Povolejte rezervy

Lidová banka Číny a Japonská banka – stejně jako další asijské centrální banky – mají potíže. Nahromadily obrovské rezervy v zahraniční měně, jejichž výše se odhaduje na více než 2 biliony dolarů. Problém je, že téměř všechny jsou právě v amerických dolarech – v měně, která rychle ztrácí hodnotu.

Všechna strategická řešení vypadají pro asijské centrální banky stejně nevábně. Neučiní-li nic a jednoduše se dál budou držet dolarů, jejich ztráty se pouze prohloubí. Budou-li nakupovat ještě více ve snaze dolar posílit, zadělají si na větší verzi téhož problému. Pokud se naopak pokusí diverzifikovat rezervy do dalších měn, stlačí dolar ještě rychleji a vytvoří větší ztráty. Kromě toho pravděpodobně narazí na stejný typ problému také u dalších možných rezervních měn.

Jako náhrada nebo alternativa k dolaru bývá nabízeno euro. Někteří zapálení Evropané vyzvali Asiaty, aby své rezervy diverzifikovali. Týž scénář by se však za několik let mohl dost dobře opakovat s eurem. Velké fiskální schodky a pomalý růst by mohly přesvědčit trhy zahraničních měn, že euro má jen malou budoucnost, a podnítit vlnu prodejů – a potažmo způsobit ztráty držitelům z řad centrálních bank.

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