布什的新中东

    五年前,布什总统宣布伊拉克战争“使命胜利完成”时过于狂妄。现在,他评价说“增兵”已经“在更为广泛的反恐战争中赢得了一场重要战略胜利”则是胡言乱语。伊拉克战争冒险是美国历史上历时最长、耗资最多的一场战争。诺贝尔经济学奖得主斯蒂格里茨估计其费用高达三万亿美元。不仅如此,这一战争也是最为难以定论的。

    这一战争把伊拉克社会碾成了粉末,各个教派分化林立。“增兵”早晚要结束,而惨遭暴力和腐败侵袭的伊拉克民众还是无法团结其政治组织。而且,由于他们的军队还是无法从美国人那里接管过来,因此伊斯兰圣战组织以及不同族裔之间的暴力还是肯定会再次爆发。摩索尔是当今反叛力量的主要据点,伊拉克军队驻在那里的一位营长阿里说:“没有美国人,我们根本不可能控制伊拉克。”

    丘吉尔曾经把战争定义为“大错的汇集”。历史对于伊拉克战争的评判因此肯定会更多地集中于它是否根据美国的民主构想实现了“重建”破败不堪的中东以及巩固美国在该地区霸权地位的战略目标,而非这一战争的流血和金钱的代价。

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