EU flags Dominique Faget/AFP/Getty Images

La UE ante dos difíciles pruebas

MÚNICH – Junio va camino de convertirse en un mes fatídico para la Unión Europea. El 21 de junio, el Tribunal Constitucional alemán dictará sentencia respecto de la impugnación planteada a un programa de compra de bonos que es fundamental para la respuesta del Banco Central Europeo a la crisis de deuda del continente. Dos días después, los votantes británicos decidirán sobre la permanencia del RU en la UE. Ambas decisiones tendrán serias consecuencias para la estabilidad política y económica de la UE a largo plazo.

La demanda interpuesta ante el tribunal alemán es el menos espectacular de los dos hechos, pero apunta al núcleo de la interpretación que hace el BCE del Tratado de Maastricht. La parte demandante, que incluye a miembros del Bundestag, cuestionó la permisibilidad de que el Bundesbank participe en el programa de transacciones monetarias directas (TMD) del BCE, con el argumento de que infringe los artículos 123 y 125 del Tratado de la UE, que (en interpretación de los demandantes) prohíben a los gobiernos emitir moneda para financiar programas de rescate. En particular, los demandantes objetaron el compromiso ilimitado del BCE con la compra de títulos públicos de países en crisis (la famosa frase “hacer lo que sea necesario”, del presidente del BCE Mario Draghi).

Según el programa de TMD, los inversores que compren esos títulos ya no deberían preocuparse por un eventual impago, ya que antes de que se presente dicho riesgo, el BCE se ocupará de comprarles los títulos en peligro, usando para ello el Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad, un fondo capaz de entregar asistencia financiera rápida a todos los miembros de la eurozona. Esto implica que el riesgo de impago se transfiere de los bonistas a los contribuyentes de las economías sanas de la eurozona, que perderían en forma permanente los intereses de esos títulos públicos.

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