Construir para el desplome

BERKELEY – A mediados del decenio de 2000, los Estados Unidos tuvieron un auge de la construcción. De 2003 a 2006, el gasto anual en construcción aumentó hasta un nivel muy por encima de su tendencia a largo plazo. Así, pues, a comienzos de 2007 los EE.UU. tenían un exceso de construcción: unos 300.000 millones de dólares de exceso de gasto en construcción respecto de la tendencia a largo plazo.

Cuando se construyeron esos edificios, se esperaba que resultaran muy rentables, pero ello dependía de dos cimientos inestables: una permanente bajada a largo plazo de los tipos de interés reales con riesgo y un optimismo permanente sobre el sector inmobiliario como clase de activos. Los dos cimientos se desplomaron.

Así, pues, en 2007 era lógico esperar que el gasto en construcción en los EE.UU. se redujera durante algún tiempo. Como el gasto acumulativo en la construcción ascendía a 300.000 millones de dólares por encima de la norma, habría tenido que representar 300.000 millones por debajo de la norma durante varios años para recuperar el equilibrio.

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