Boom-bust edilizio

BERKELEY – A metà degli anni 2000 gli Stati Uniti hanno vissuto un boom edilizio. Dal 2003-2006 la spesa annuale nel campo dell’edilizia è cresciuta a un livello esorbitante rispetto alla tendenza lineare (trend) di lungo periodo. All’inizio del 2007 gli Usa, che avevano costruito case ed edifici ovunque, registravano una spesa edilizia che superava il trend di lungo termine per un valore pari a circa 300 miliardi di dollari.

Quando furono costruiti questi edifici, la speranza era di ricavarne profitti superiori a quanto investito. La redditività poggiava su due pilastri traballanti: da una parte una flessione permanente dei tassi di interesse reali, ritenuti rischiosi nel lungo periodo, e dall’altra il costante ottimismo sul mercato immobiliare, considerato un’asset class. Entrambi i pilastri sono crollati.

Si ipotizzava per gli anni successivi al 2007 un crollo della spesa edile americana. A fronte di un aumento rispetto al trend di 300 miliardi di dollari si attendeva infatti per questi anni un calo di pari valore prima di raggiungere una situazione di pareggio.

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