Zazděná výstavba

BERKELEY – V polovině prvního desetiletí nového milénia procházely Spojené státy stavebním boomem. V letech 2003-2006 roční stavební výdaje vzrostly na úroveň zřetelně převyšující dlouhodobý trend. Do začátku roku 2007 už USA byly zástavbou v podstatě přeplácané: asi o 300 miliard dolarů nad dlouhodobým trendem stavebních výdajů.

Když se budovy stavěly, očekávalo se, že se víc než zaplatí. Jejich rentabilita ale závisela na dvou chatrných základech: setrvalém propadu dlouhodobých rizikových reálných úrokových sazeb a setrvalém optimismu ohledně nemovitostí jako třídy aktiv. Oba tyto základy se sesuly.

K roku 2007 bylo proto rozumné očekávat, že se stavební výdaje v USA na určitou dobu propadnou. Jelikož kumulativní výdaje ve stavebnictví byly o 300 miliard dolarů nad úrovní trendu, musely se během několika let vychýlit o 300 miliard dolarů pod jeho úroveň, aby se vrátily do rovnováhy.

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