没有市场的泡沫

纽黑文—在全球金融危机之前发生、并伴随危机过程的房地产、股票和商品市场的投机泡沫亦是危机的终极原因。但因此认为将投机市场一关了事,或如眼下许多人建议的那样用金融交易税让投机市场减慢速度,这样就能让事情有所好转也并不正确

投机泡沫是一种社会传染病,其传播以价格运动为媒介。价格上涨的消息让早期投资者赚了钱,他们成功的段子开始在坊间流传,刺激了人们的嫉妒心和兴趣。接着,兴奋感诱使越来越多的人进入市场,而这让价格进一步上涨,吸引更多的人助推“新时代”传说,如此循环往复,成功的反馈环随着泡沫的增长而壮大。在泡沫破裂后,同样的传播过程造成了急剧的崩溃,因为价格下跌导致越来越多的人逃离市场,从而放大了关于经济的坏消息。

但是,在我们决定如今——危机之后——应该用政策驯服市场之前,我们需要考虑一下替代方案。事实上,投机泡沫只是众多社会传染病中的一种,要不是有金融市场存在,其后果没准要严重得多。在投机泡沫中,疯狂因人们对价格运动的反应而被放大,但社会传染病并不需要市场和价格来获得公众注意并快速传播。

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