Die Probleme mit Spekulationsblasen

Die Zukunft des Booms auf dem Wohnungsmarkt und die möglichen finanziellen Auswirkungen eines deutlichen Preisrückgangs in den kommenden Jahren sind unter den Regierungen weltweit Gegenstand wachsender Besorgnis. Ich habe dies aus erster Hand erfahren, als ich dieses Jahr in der abgelegenen Wildnis von Wyoming (wo es ironischerweise fast keine Eigenheime zu kaufen gibt) am Jackson Hole Symposium teilnahm. Die Nächte dort hallten wider vom Geheul der Kojoten und dem Röhren der Elche; tagsüber allerdings sprachen alle nur über Immobilien.

Die Konferenz hat sich zu einem bedeutenden internationalen Event für staatliche geldpolitische Entscheidungsträger entwickelt. In diesem Jahr nahmen Präsidenten oder Vizepräsidenten von 34 Notenbanken teil. In etwa zwei Dritteln dieser Länder ist es seit dem Jahr 2000 zu dramatischen Preissteigerungen auf den Wohnungsmärkten gekommen, und in den meisten davon scheint sich diese Entwicklung fortzusetzen, zumindest für den Augenblick. Über die langfristigen Perspektiven bei den Eigenheimpreisen jedoch herrschte in Jackson Hole Uneinigkeit.

Unter all diesen Ländern sind es, wie es scheint, die USA, die mit größter Wahrscheinlichkeit das Ende ihres Zyklus erreicht haben. Laut dem Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index sind die Eigenheimpreise in den USA zwischen 1996 und 2006 real (inflationsbereinigt) um 86% gestiegen, inzwischen jedoch um 6,5% gefallen – und das Tempo dieses Preisrückgangs nimmt zu.

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