泡沫的麻烦

房地产繁荣的未来以及未来数年价格大跌可能带来的金融影响已经越来越引起世界各国政府的担心。我在参加今年在怀俄明州遥远的荒野举行的Jackson Hole会议了解了有关这方面的第一手信息。具有讽刺意味的是,那里几乎没有房子可买。夜晚可以听到郊狼和驼鹿的叫声。但是,白天大家谈论的都是房地产问题。

该会议已经发展成为各国政府货币政策制定者的重要国际聚会,今年的会议有来自34个国家的中央银行的行长或副行长参加。这些国家中大约有三分之二自2000年以来经历了房地产的高度繁荣,其中绝大多数的繁荣看上去还会继续下去,至少从目前来看是如此。但是大家对于房价的长期走势看法却不尽相同。

在所有这些国家中,美国看上去最有可能已经达到了一个循环的终点。根据标准普尔Case-Shiller美国全国房价指数,美国的房价在1996-2006年之间去除通货膨胀的影响实际上升了86%,但是此后已经下降了6.5%,并且下降的幅度还在加快。

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