Dean Rohrer

El descubrimiento de burbujas

NEW HAVEN – Como he escrito sobre la especulación en el mercado, con frecuencia me preguntan dónde es probable que se produzca la próxima burbuja. ¿Será en la vivienda de nuevo? ¿Será en el mercado de valores?

No lo sé, aunque tengo algunos presentimientos. Nadie puede predecir burbujas con exactitud. En mi opinión, las burbujas son epidemias sociales, alimentadas por algo así como un contagio interpersonal. Una burbuja se forma cuando la tasa de contagio aumenta con ideas que contribuyen a una burbuja, pero las tasas de contagio dependen de modos de pensar, que son difíciles de juzgar.

Las grandes burbujas especulativas son acontecimientos poco comunes. (Burbujas pequeñas, en el precio de valores particulares, pongamos por caso, ocurren constantemente y no podemos considerarlas una respuesta a la pregunta.) Y, como las burbujas grandes duran muchos años, predecirlas significa predecir muchos años del futuro, que es un poco como predecir quién gobernara dentro de dos elecciones.

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