Dean Rohrer

La previsione delle bolle speculative

NEW HAVEN – La gente mi chiede spesso, quale esperto di speculazione di mercato, in quale settore si verificherà la prossima bolla speculativa. Sarà di nuovo nel settore immobiliare? Oppure nella Borsa?

Posso avere qualche presentimento, ma in realtà non lo so. In effetti, è impossibile prevedere in modo preciso eventuali bolle speculative. A mio avviso, le bolle speculative sono una forma di epidemia sociale incoraggiate da un processo di contagio interpersonale. Una bolla si forma nel momento in cui aumenta il livello di contagio legato ad elementi che favoriscono le bolle speculative. Ma i livelli di contagio dipendono dalle diverse modalità di pensiero che sono difficili da individuare.

Eventuali contesti speculativi di grande portata sono decisamente rari, mentre bolle speculative di entità minore, legate ad esempio a titoli singoli, sono molto frequenti e non sono pertanto da prendere in considerazione nella risposta alla domanda precedentemente posta. Inoltre, dato che le bolle speculative durano diversi anni, il poterle prevedere implicherebbe la capacità di prevedere gli sviluppi degli anni a venire che equivarrebbe al poter prevedere anche chi sarà al governo tra le prossime due elezioni.

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