Dean Rohrer

Peut-on prévoir les bulles ?

NEW HAVEN – Comme j'ai beaucoup écrit sur la spéculation, on me demande souvent où apparaîtra la prochaine bulle spéculative. Dans l'immobilier à nouveau, ou peut-être sur le marché boursier ?

En fait je n'en sais rien, mais j'ai quand même une petite idée. Personne ne peut prévoir avec précision les bulles. A mon avis il s'agit d'une sorte de maladie sociale contagieuse. Elle se forme quand le taux de transmission des idées qui sous-tendent sa formation augmente, mais ce taux de transmission dépend aussi du mode de pensée des acteurs du marché – ce qui est difficile à évaluer.

L'apparition de petites bulles sur certains titres particuliers est très fréquente, mais cela ne répond pas à la question. Par contre les grosses bulles sont rares et comme elles mettent plusieurs années avant d'éclater, les prévoir suppose d'anticiper sur une très longue période - un peu comme si l'on voulait prédire qui sera au pouvoir dans 10 ans.

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