Dean Rohrer

泡沫的测定

发自纽黑文——作为一个在市场投机方面略有论述的评论者,人们总会问我:下一场大规模投机泡沫何时发生?是在住宅市场卷土重来,还是转移到股票市场兴风作浪?

虽然我对此总会有一些预感,但也无法给出答案,事实上根本没人能准确预测泡沫的来临。在我看来,泡沫是一种社会流行病,由某种人与人之间的互相传染而催生。当某种观念的“传染率”升高到足以支撑泡沫的程度,泡沫便应运而生了,问题是这种传染率的高低取决于人们的思维模式,而后者是极难进行判断的。

大规模的投机泡沫其实极少发生。(类似某只股票的股价这样的小型价格泡沫则是家常便饭,也不能作为问题的答案。)与此同时,由于大规模泡沫往往持续经年,预测它们就等于要预测未来数年内会发生何事,难度堪比预测两届大选过后的美国总统人选。

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