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Los corredores de apuestas y las elecciones británicas

LONDRES – A mí se me consideraba un pronosticador bastante bueno de las elecciones británicas y de otros países. Al fin y al cabo, en tiempos fui presidente de un partido.

Ahora puedo revelar mi método. No se basaba en ninguna visión política nueva. No tenía un algoritmo mágico que relacionara los factores económicos con las intenciones de voto, si bien creo que hay, en efecto, cierta correlación entre la renta neta disponible y la forma como las personas votan normalmente, pero mi técnica, que aún uso, ha demostrado ser más fiable que el estudio detenido de las entrañas políticas de cada circunscripción.

Lo que hago no es demasiado complejo; miro los datos de los corredores de apuestas. Sin ir más lejos, resultó valiosísimo en relación con el referéndum escocés sobre la independencia del pasado mes de septiembre. Dos días antes del recuento, los corredores de apuestas iban a pagar a quienes habían apostado por que Escocia votaría “no” a la independencia. Ya se puede suponer cómo votó Escocia realmente.

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