James Blunt/Flickr

Букмекеры и британские выборы

ЛОНДОН – Когда-то меня считали неплохим предсказателем результатов выборов, как в Великобритании, так и во всем мире. В конце концов, когда-то я был председателем партии.

Теперь я могу рассказать о секрете моего метода. Он не был основан на какой-то особой инсайдерской политической информации. У меня не было волшебного алгоритма, связывающего экономические факторы с электоральными намерениями – хотя мне кажется, что существует некоторая корреляция между чистым доходом человека и тем, как он обычно голосует. Однако мой собственный метод, который я использую до сих пор, оказался более надежным, чем копание в политических недрах каждого избирательного округа.

Мой метод не особо сложен: я слежу за букмекерскими ставками. Их неоценимое значение стало очевидным после шотландского референдума о независимости в сентябре прошлого года. За два дня до подсчета голосов букмекеры отдавали предпочтение игрокам, которые ставили на отказ Шотландии от независимости. И угадайте, как проголосовала Шотландия?

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